At this point every scientist in the world is throwing any random theory out there in the hope one sticks and they will be showered in new funding. The track record of Neil Ferguson‘s Group at Imperial is representative of this industry, however.
Given that an alarming model is going to alter our behaviour, it seems unrealistic to expect them to match what actually happens.
It's not really clear if actions and visible behaviour changes did much - all of them came way too late - and there is no sign of a trendbreak that indicates any improvement.