Given the retail drive of this rally, bills coming due could have a similar effect.
At some point there is going to be a critical mass of people not paying their mortgage, not paying rent, not paying loans, not paying credit cards...and simply no money and unemployment.
I think this week we will begin to see some acknowledgement of the realities because July 15 is the new tax return date, and I think there will be millions and millions of American's who just say F it, I am not filing/paying taxes.
Then again it also wouldn't surprise me if 10s of millions end up homeless before the end of the year while politicians keep parading around unemployment numbers and the stock market record highs, while these people get swept under the rug and never actually acknowledged.
[1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/07/0...
[2] https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/layoffs-expected-when-...
About 20% of renters and homeowners in the USA are worried about evictions/foreclosures in the next 6 months[1] and that number only goes down if the economy makes massive improvements or if Congress stops playing brinksmanship.
[1] https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/july-housing-payments
What I think is far more interesting is what happens internally: the US is a powder keg of economic and racial inequality and our leaders are either throwing lit matches at it or gently disapproving of those doing the throwing. If COVID cases and deaths keep increasing I can't see how we continue without structural changes.
Hyperinflation is one way to throw more fuel on the dire that is American society right now. And Trump said the quiet part out loud during his campaign[1] that we don't have to repay the whole debt (normally something that the most powerful people in a country don't say in public).
Neither of these ideas works in practice without significant tradeoffs. The US dollar only keeps its value because people around the world have faith it is worth something. A spike in inflation or a debt default would have investors scramble to move their assets elsewhere.
[1] https://www.npr.org/2016/05/09/477350889/donald-trumps-messy...
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...
The only reason store-brand sliced white bread isn't $10 right now is that money only went to investors and businesses.
What do you mean 'start'?
The homeless camp right next to the new Apple spaceship just got a bathroom installed:
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/03/after-months-of-compl...
This stuff has been going on for a few years now.
I'm not downplaying the seriousness of what's happening, as the economic impact will be catastrophic. But physically evicting large percentages of a population with no sudden increase in demand for those properties, seems like an unlikely outcome.
Homeowners will probably find a way to catch up before losing their rear but renters could trivially find themselves in very quick perfunctory hearings where they are quickly told to put up or get out. Many with relatives with a spare couch or even a spare floor to sleep on might see the writing on the wall and get out before they are humiliated by being put out. If most evictions are carried out without a trial or hearing of any variety simply with a note on the door the courts will be able to keep up with the few that contest.
At least on the west coast, in each major city, we have thousands of people living in tents, if not tens of thousands. Seattle has over 10k now officially (and speaking with food bank workers 20 years ago, they said it was that number then, when times were less shit). Los Angeles per their recent count has over 40k.
https://www.lahsa.org/news?article=726-2020-greater-los-ange...