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Comment by ardit33 | Hacker News Reader

Please don't spew falsehoods and add 'general concesus' to it.

There are reports that the French team that traveled in October in Wuhan for mil. sports games, got infected by it. So, that it was at circulating in Wuhan at least since October, even most probably: early september.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/08/covid-19-pandemi...

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Whether that's likely or not can be estimated by extrapolating case numbers from January back in time into 2019 and using a reasonable estimate for the R0 value without any measures against the spreading of the disease. Even if you don't trust the Chinese numbers, the estimate should be roughly in the right ballpark, since we certainly didn't have millions of deaths in Wuhan in January. The initial exponential growth phase is similar in all regions with comparable population density.

I haven't crunched these numbers, but a start in early September seems unlikely to me - call it a hunch, based on looking at the initial growth curves.

The Telegraph is not a reliable source for anything connected to covid.

The Telegraph is not a reliable source for anything.

Newspapers are not a reliable source for news.

The Telegraph only qualifies as a newspaper in the loosest of terms, in that it also sometimes reports news and is published in dead tree form.

Why did you quote me 'general concesus' and then misspell the word?

I'm not going to respond to the rest of the comment suggesting the Telegraph should be part of my consideration when judging the science.

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