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> because it most likely is

Is this not you making a prediction, the very sentence after saying one can not predict the future?

Saying an AI winter is coming isn't saying how long it will be for or what the magnitude will be.

OK, so what is it saying?

That progress won't be steady and predictable.

No. This is like saying that if today is not raining, a rainy day is coming

> because it most likely is

"Ark estimates that Deep Learning has created $1 trillion in market value so far. " -- we might be headed towards a warm winter

Value is there until it isn't. A lot of the value here comes from its potential rather than its current use

I neither claimed tech development was linear, nor am I basing future AI progress on the rate of progress in the last decades.

I am basing future AI progress on what AI can do in July of 2020, which I believe already represents substantial progress towards that goal.