The government response in the USA might have failed. The response by by other governments [TW/NZ/ROK/JP] are keeping the virus under control without a vaccine, and if we had a national mask mandate along with a new CCC-like program for contract tracers then we could also have much less than 50% infection.

However Trump will probably be re-elected, Obamacare will be overturned with a new SCOTUS pick when RBG dies in a couple months, and corporations will get immunity to COVID lawsuits from employees. Just my prediction.