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Comment by pm90 | Hacker News Reader

I am afraid that what happens in the upcoming election will be a referendum on what kind of country the US will become, and what kind of reaction it will have to the urgent existential problems the world faces today. If the current administration persists, I do not see any genuine way that the country could tackle these problems. Just look at the completely botched non-response to the current pandemic at the Federal level; not to mention the constant racism in calling the coronavirus "Kung Flu". All the political appointees lie constantly and seem to be terrible at their jobs. I do not personally believe that the country can handle the upcoming crises in a reasonable manner if that happens.

On the other hand, even with a change in the Presidency, it is almost guaranteed that the GOP will do everything in its power to obstruct the new Administration, if it holds any power at all.

I am not sure what will happen. I share your hope but not your optimism.

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It's off-topic, but (as a non-American) I personally believe Trump will win re-election. Steve Bannon (the architect of Trump's 2016 election win) has said Trump will win re-election if the Chinese Communist Party is the central issue of the election (which it increasingly is).

Come November they'll likely be multiple vaccine candidates in late-stage trials, and the compelling argument can be made saying the botched crisis is almost over and Trump will soon be returning the economy to four more years of ~3% growth. After the vaccine is widely deployed, whoever is President will see a year of 6+% growth (after 2020's 10+% contraction)

I'm not sure you understand how bad the coronavirus situation is here. People's kids aren't going to be able to go to school in person this fall. Short of the outbreak of WW3 I can't imagine the pandemic not being the top issue.

That's mostly due to teaching unions. The risk to children from Corona virus is vanishingly small.

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-ris...

Viruses spread. It’s not just the children we’re worried about.

Ask Israel how opening schools worked for them.

There's a curiously large amount of people that just don't understand the second order effects.

At this point people understand what they want to understand. I don’t know how to fix that.

Ask Sweden. Relatively few teachers have caught COVID there. Taxi drivers have a five times higher risk than teachers. Also, it depends on the age of the pupils.

The CCP isn't a tremendously controversial issue in the US (the consensus against it is strong and bipartisan), so it's hard to see how it could become the central issue of the election.

“Disapprove” vs. “go to war with”

Is there a single political figure in Washington arguing for war with the Chinese?

The issue is Biden appears much weaker than Trump on China. He has the baggage of being an Obama administration official (overseeing the South China Sea militarization and the US-China Cyber Agreement).

Some core Trump advisors like Peter Navarro (author of "Death by China" and the associated documentary) believe in economic decoupling far more deeply Biden advisors.

I agree some Democratic leaders like Chuck Schumer are hawks on China, but a Biden administration would be far less hawkish on the CCP issue than Trump.

I can see Trump using the 'nuclear option' and cutting off Hong Kong's ability to conduct transactions in US dollars (fatally killing the Hong Kong economy and deeply damaging China's, and far less so America's). I can't see Biden doing that.

Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, it's just hard to imagine such nitty-gritty details of the US-China relationship being the central issue of this election.

I believe geopolitics were a significant part of the last POTUS election. The parties are split based on their constituents relative anxiety over Russia. Also, Hillary's "no fly zone" over Russia's naval base in Syria seemed an important issue too.

I think you are vastly overestimating the degree of nuance involved in that election.

I have to agree, most Americans are using nothing but Chinese made products. If there was some commie scare that would be the first thing to go.

Easy. After carefully creating the enemy in the past four years (the relationship with China was then much better and people weren't using "CCP" as a stand-in for "China"), Trump will just need to stress that he's the only one who can protect Americans from the threat- those democrats weaklings were selling the country to the CCP and will continue to do so.

Job done.

The problem here is that 'conservatives' in the US have been conditioned to blame all of societies ills on 'progressives'. It's a culture war. To pivot, you need to convince that China is the greatest threat and that the 'progressives' are in bed with them. With 11 weeks to go and no groundwork having been done already, it's unlikely this strategy will stick at all.

Just like Pepsi vs Coca-Cola was a referendum on what liquids would exist so now the earth is 70% covered in Coke? This isn't that timeline, friend.

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