As far as my understanding for clinical trials goes, we can still have the exact same tests with the exact same criteria and quality but still speed up the overall process. Simply by eliminating the default waterfall and accepting higher financial risk. (Also higher medical risk, but only within the trials, not for the end-product).
Usually, one would run the various trials strictly in order:
trial_stage = 0;
while (trial_stage < 4)
execute(trial_stage)
if (evaluate(trial_stage) == success)
trial_stage++
do
Theses no way there will be a vaccine pushed out before late 2021. That's an optimistic start
Maybe, maybe high risk workers might start larger rollouts mid next year. But even if it's true their vaccine might not even be the one you might be offered.
Being high risk workers you'll also know little since you won't be able to sort danger between the vaccine and their work.
At your safety level you are asking for late 2022 would be an early option. But then the risk from C19 might lower, so you'll have to reassess then.
I doubt most people will get the vaccine.
By now the vaccine has clearly shifted in purpose from a medical one to a primarily psychological one. For people who are wedded to lockdowns and can't admit how disastrous they are, a vaccine is a face-saving exit criteria. It comes with the bonus of more top-down control of the population too!
I don't know if that is true. Maybe just a lie to make the public believe it is safe.