I think you're completely right. I have a 'normal' 65% keyboard and find myself looking at the keys all the time without trying.
If I remind myself not to look then I can touch type just fine because I've been using keyboards for like 15 years..But I still find myself looking down as I type multiple times a day out of habit. I've often wondered if getting blank keycaps would help with this problem but have never made the jump (mainly due to cost). Someday!
Even just writing this comment I found myself looking at the keyboard instead of the screen..It's a really bad habit because it is almost like a small context switch in terms of switching back to what I should be looking at.