Hacker News Reader

Comment by zie | Hacker News Reader

If we assume:

* BO rocket 2x the cargo size * Satellites same size/weight as starlink

120 sats per launch(vs F9's 60). If they have to launch 1618 by 2026, that means they need 14 launches in 6 years.

If they only need 1/2 the 1618, they need 7 launches in 6 years.

So I think 7 launches(840 sats) it's still in the realm of possibility, but they have to execute everything pretty much flawlessly to make it happen. They can't afford to have many things go wrong.

Getting 14 launches done in 6 years would be very ambitious. Unless they are way way further along than they have told the public, this is probably just wishful thinking.

View on HN

Amazon's obligation to "launch at least half of the total by 2026 to retain the operating license the FCC has granted the company" is designed to stop squatting on the license without delivering service, and it's with the US government NOT the International Telecommunication Union.

If Amazon has shown at least some launches done in good faith, expect the FCC to be VERY lenient if Amazon don't meet their goal of launching 1618 out of 3236 satellites.

Though if in the year 2026 Amazon has missed their target by a significant amount, expect SpaceX to sue to try to get the spectrum partially re-allocated so they can leverage it for their (likely already fully operational) Starlink service.

I agree with what you say here. If they are pretty close, I don't think anyone will care much, though perhaps a lawsuit or two by competitors to give their lawyers something to do wouldn't be unfounded :)

But if they are way off, if they only launch 120 sats, instead of the 1,618 they need to launch, I expect even the FCC would rake them over the coals some. If SpaceX is the only provider that met their timeline with the FCC(which seems more and more likely as time goes by that they will be the only one), they will still probably be lenient, but I imagine they will get a stern talking to, about hurrying up!

> If Amazon has shown at least some launches done in good faith, expect the FCC to be VERY lenient if Amazon don't meet their goal of launching 1618 out of 3236 satellites.

That...depends. The FCC has been rather politicized recently, and shifts approximately with US Presidential Administrations; if when the time came the Administration was as anti-Bezos as the current one, I wouldn't be surprised to see it hold Amazon to the letter of the terms whether or not the intent of the rules was different and usual practice involved fairly easy modification as long as good-faith effort was shown.

My wording was ambiguous, so to clarify: their full constellation is 3236 satellites, 1618 is the half amount they need to launch until 2026.

thanks! I was to lazy to look up the FCC app to know for sure, so I hedged :)

BO has existed longer than SpaceX without launching anything to orbit. I'm not saying that it cannot be done, but 2026 is 5 years away....

SpaceX has claimed we will definitely have point to point rocket travel in 7-8 years, in production, for between the cost of a coach and business class ticket [1]. Long haul airlines will begin getting phased out according to them.

Since reliability is going to fundamentally change by that much in order to have massive passenger rockets replacing jet travel, Blue Origin has nothing to worry about. There is a magic invention that is going to completely change the game, and it won't be patented since those aren't worth doing according to Musk.

Musk also said a robo taxi network is coming online this year. He said it will need a bit of winter training but would have that integrated by the end of the year as well. Full level 5, all conditions and scenarios a human can drive in[2]. Steering wheel can be taken off afterwards. Recent news says it is going to be several weeks before they have any sort of object permanence implemented/temporal picture of the scene, but apparently that is all part of the plan.

Unless Tesla and SpaceX have completely alien tech, I'm confident Bezos could do the 6 launches by 6 years.

[1] https://www.vox.com/2018/4/11/17227036/flight-spacex-gwynne-...

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE

Musk has laid out some pretty big visions he hasn’t yet achieved (see Mars, colonization) and doesn’t always meet his aggressive deadlines, but he’s actually accomplishing a great deal. An rocket with 80 commercial launches, landing and reusing hypersonic first stages (and now fairings), the worlds first full flow staged combustion engine, the most powerful rocket in the world (Falcon Heavy), StarLink with already 655 satellites, and that’s just SpaceX accomplishments.

What has BO done other than land a suborbital rocket that doesn’t achieve more than tiny fraction of orbital velocity? They haven’t even had a person ride it yet, let alone a paying customer on board.

If we can start replacing long-haul passenger planes with rockets that soon, I feel that BO can launch the sats or Amazon can pay someone else to launch them. Unless there is something going on edging into magical that is going to put SpaceX that far ahead that there would be people taking rockets for regularly commercial flight, not thrill seeking space tourism, price-competitive with commercial flight and reliable.

There are a lot of steps remaining for SpaceX to start a long haul point to point passenger service on Earth. First, Starship has to meet its safety and performance aspirations, that’s at least a decades worth of work. The first passengers won’t be for a couple years, and they will only be astronauts and explorers for at least a decade, until Raptor has a long history of trustworthy flights. Then there is the government approvals, offshore launch and landing sites with high volume transport to/from them, etc. Point to Point might be twenty years away.

So yes, its reasonable BO will be launching payloads within the same time frame, 10-20 years.

They say in that article it will start without a doubt by 2028.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com