This is one of the biggest reasons that I follow our governments recommendations on travel, working from home, masks and so on. There is people that have it as a full time job to calculate these risks and produce recommendations for the rest of us.

you don't need to. just adhere to a simple rule: distance indoors, and when you can't, wear a mask.

that takes care of the overwhelming majority of transmission risk. minutiae and the marginal are just not worth worrying about.

Not really. They are categorical choices.

Decide X is a "safe enough" activity. Done.

I agree that trying to balance that every single day would be tiring, but broadly deciding "Our kids can play with the neighbors" is a one-time choice. As are the rest.