> This is 100% what I believe the case will be. We won't try anything, at scale, until forced to. The reason I live the way I do is to prepare for (what I believe to be) the inevitable change/shift in the world in the next 3-5 decades.
> That being said - mega-cities, and a majority of humans living in cities is a relatively new phenomena. I am not sure our current structure lends itself to 'local' living - that's my argument above. It takes a crap-load of space to feed a family.
It seems you have thought this out a lot more than I have and have the practical experience to boot.
I too also think there is a good chance for a change/shift in the world around the time frame you are talking about. I’ve seen people talk about different collapse scenarios, including some of the weirder ones. It is less about preparing it for myself so much as preparing it for my unborn son and any of his siblings that follow after.
Granted, in some of the post-collapse scenarios I’ve seen, the mega-cities are likely to be shell. I live in Phoenix. I see a lot of space that could be used for growing ... but there is not a lot of water out here. This summer, I started relandscaping my yard to capture the monsoon rains, but they didn’t really come this year. It was effectively a drought. Phoenix is not built as a city that could survive without A/C, let alone much of the areas are distant from the canals. The Salt River that runs through here is dried up. For longer-term, I’m looking at moving the family to Northern Arizona, where we’d have a better shot.
I’m also thinking that the scale at which to grow food is probably going to be at a village size. It would require a different family structure too. The one tech I think that would really need to survive is the internet, though perhaps not in the form that it is now (with control of the internet aggregated into a small handful of players). I think the presence of the internet is what will make the difference between regressing back to horticulture, to something that helps us move forward. But whatever that “forward” is, it won’t be the familiar status quo.
It may take a crap-load of space to feed a family ... I think though, encouraging people to try to feed something of themselves can help them prepare in some way if there is a collapse; and if there isn’t one, I think it would help a lot. One of the things that growing at least some of your own food enables (even if you can’t grow all of it in an apartment), is that it links you into the food cycle. It seeds a sense of agency for the person. It starts the development of personal self-reliance, even if it is not completely self-reliant, or that it is impossible for megacities to support. In this way, it gives a little bit of capability and confidence that, someone can realistically assess their chances while they are still living in a megacity. And who knows, such a person might come up with some creative ways to do so, even if others decide that they need to build their life elsewhere.