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Comment by nradov | Hacker News Reader

Imagine trying to derail the discussion with unscientific appeals to emotion. Obviously no one is okay with extra deaths, so you're arguing against a strawman.

So far there have been about 218,000 American deaths. There is no scientific basis for your 1,148,700 number. The only way we could have prevented all of the American deaths would have been by completely sealing our borders back in December, but at the time no one realized how serious it was. We now know there was already widespread community transmission by January and at that point a high death toll became inevitable.

https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-dea...

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You quote a 0.35% death rate. Google says there are 328.2 million Americans. Do the math.

It's amusing for someone arguing "science" to be unable to multiple two fucking numbers.

You are saying 1,148,700 deaths is okay, that people are "panicking" for no reason. A 40% increase in death rate (the CDC says there were 2,813,503 deaths in 2019) seems like a pretty reasonable reason to "panic".

Trying to save a sixth of a Holocaust seems like decent public policy.

I didn't quote a 0.35% death rate. That represents a possible upper bound on IFR based on data so far. Even in a worst case scenario it is impossible for 100% of Americans to be infected. Your simplistic estimate is missing critical variables.

I never claimed that any number of deaths is "okay" so stop arguing in bad faith and putting words in my mouth. Panicking is irrational and never helpful. We need rational, science-based policies now more than ever.

Certainly we should save as many lives as possible, but we can't get tunnel vision and focus on COVID-19 to the exclusion of all else. The lockdowns also kill people. They die slowly from lack of medical care, depression, substance abuse, and suicide but in the end they're dead all the same. It's like trying to run a business by focusing entirely on revenue and ignoring costs.

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