so either someone succeeded, or it got rotated by simply moving the coins to literally any other address. of course, both of these outcomes are indistinguishable which is part of the beauty of the system, especially if someone was actually trying to ride out statute of limitations or something else.
they can still obfuscate their destination either way. if the source is illicit its money laundering, if the source is not illicit its just obfuscation, if done right the illicit source is never discovered having been replaced with a licit source.
Each of these transactions can be traced, but it can be difficult to track which output bitcoins relate to which input bitcoins.
from this article and other articles I've seen:
> A file that some claimed was an encrypted bitcoin wallet containing the keys to the funds has been circulated in cryptocurrency communities for the past year, and – if it is what it was claimed to be – then a combination of brute computing power and good luck could have successfully decrypted the wallet.
With $1b, I’d rather risk losing 10% than having a 10% chance of losing all of it.
Surely key rotation only makes sense if the time between each rotation is much much less than the expected time between compromise and theft.
In high value situations, an attacker is highly motivated to ensure they steal Bitcoin very quickly after compromise. Especially becaus the clock is ticking until the compromise is discovered and mitigated.
Any secret protecting anything you care about should be rotated. The schedule is dictated by specifics.