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Within 5 to 15 years I would guess, depending on the moment cheaper batteries materialize at scale and/or the tax system either benefits EVs or penalizes ICEs.

Taxis and buses are already starting to use EVs due to tax subsidies for businesses so we know that reducing taxes works, but even with our currently "slightly less statist than average" government that's a long shot for regular people to get the same benefits anytime soon. This is in Uruguay FWIW.

My brother lives in India and apparently there is a local brand of electric scooters. Very cool, imho. Lots of two wheelers in India, so it makes sense that happens first.

Electric buses are mainstream in china.

Electric buses are mainstream in America, they drive past my home a dozen times a day. Of course they pull their power from overhead powerlines, but I'd guess that makes them better at handling hills and has less downtime.

That's a stretch. And China is 2nd world.

Why is it a stretch?

I didn't say china was a third world country, but they do have 421,000 electric buses, which means that it is already a country where electric vehicles are mainstream.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-15/in-shift-...