Every drought means conflict, they mean war, refugees and instability. Sure, the first world will be shielded from the worst for some time, but this isn't a Hollywood movie, the pressure will keep increasing every year exposing every flaw in the system.
Corona has shown that our world does not deal well with pressure and you can't make a vaccine for food insecurity.
Nth order effects will make it your problem pretty quickly.
Many are blind to exponentially growing phenomena.
One good example is that a several degree increase can melt the Siberian ice and release methane stores equivalent to 100 years of maximal human CO2 footprint. That's already a massive nth order effect.
Sometimes problems are not that simple.
I’m pretty sure he would also agree with the estimate for Siberian methane stores. He would just be careful with predicting what happens when they get released.
The average temperature increase can have different effects and that is one of the lines of his argument.
If you do not care about the issue and don’t want to hear opposing opinion then do not leave a comment.
Although the temp increase might happen during the colder times of the day so the wet bulb might never reach the deadly quantities.
This is just the beginning. It will get far worse and then worse again, thanks to people denying it and saying we might think about maybe reducing our emissions gradually next decade sometime..
In South Australia they're talking about taxing EVs because they don't get to tax their owners by way of the fuel excise. There's zero regard for pollution, it doesn't even have a monetary value - high polluters aren't taxed at all, so they're taxing the solution not the pollution instead. (Contrast Norway).
This is why I said it's going to get far far worse. There's so many thick skins to get through, blocking and impeding what needed to be immediate action decades ago and still isn't.
Observing science has been part of the HN culture as long as I've been here.
At any rate, the question isn't so much - were extreme bad weather events bad before as well, more - are they getting worse and/or more frequent?
This year has the most named storms on record and we still have 3 weeks left.