Not so, SWT uses its own bindings to the OS's native GUI toolkit, using JNI.
> desktop JVM could see a surprising renaissance as a lesser evil
I'm not convinced that a whole new toolkit is the solution, with all the challenges that brings (lots of widgets to create, internationalisation, accessibility, multiple platforms to test on, etc). I figure the better move would be to work on improving JavaFX. As far as I can tell it's a pretty solid GUI toolkit, albeit one with little adoption.
edit Also, I suspect one of the things holding back Java desktop GUIs might be that they're often clumsy to distribute. Expecting the user to install the JVM isn't good enough, the application should bundle a JVM, or use ahead-of-time compilation. The user should never be made aware of what language you built the program in. As I understand it, OpenJDK has been making solid progress on the latter option. (And Excelsior JET no longer exists.)