>How do you differentiate an event that is very improbable and so takes a billion years from an event that is inevitable, but requires many prerequisites, and so takes a billion years?

Holy hell, this man trounced a team of Oxford scientists in a single line! Someone get this man a NObEl PRizE...

So you, a random internet person caught such an obvious error and somehow no one at Oxford or the reviewers at Astrobiology noticed? That's really what you think?