OTOH, those robust lenses from the 50s to early 80s survived until today and are often still used and adapted on modern mirrorless cameras.
OTOH, those robust lenses from the 50s to early 80s survived until today and are often still used and adapted on modern mirrorless cameras.
Overall, agreed, though.
I wouldn't expect any gear made today to have that much of a lifetime.
That is to say, the electronics are fairly standard. You could easily make a single board that can drive the electronics of pretty much every lens. Projects exist going in that direction.
As for the construction, it's pretty damn solid. It's not fully metal, by very high glass fiber percentage nylon and polycarbonate. Very, very durable materials, in some cases even more than metal.
And because of advances in manufacturing tech and the fact these are made of multiple simple plastic parts, you can fabricate replacement parts fairly easily.
Given the fact that the Tamron lens lasted 15 years with the only issue being the aperture cable getting damaged and two pins getting bent out of shape, and that even the cheapest modern lens was fabricated similarly, I think it's not unreasonable to think they could last 40+ years given sufficient effort. Certainly for the most worthwhile lenses.
Of course, when parts need to be made out of metal for mechanical reasons, they often still are. For example, mounts, threaded rings, and so on.
http://jaredlichtenbergerphoto.com/blog/mamiya-645-pro-mirro...
Ironically, since these lenses often need much smaller adjustments and don't need as much to be readjusted after taking them apart, I find it easier to repair them than some complex metal lenses.