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Comment by ams6110 | Hacker News Reader

Cannot be outsourced... yet. Do you really think it will be very long before small welding robots scale and weld steel on new high-rise construction? A robot that can scale an I-beam doesn't seem too farfetched... and no worker's comp, no danger of people falling off the building, no overtime wages...

Same with plumbing and wiring. I would bet that within a few decades we will see massive use of robots in construction.

Now, for ad-hoc repairs you may still need a skilled human being, but for new assemblies I think the robots are going to take over there sooner or later as well.

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I was talking to a boiler-maker friend the other day when he described an automated device that he places at the joint of two pipes to be joined, gets it aligned, and (it sounded like) presses a "Start" button and the unit moves around the diameter of the pipes, welding them together. No "by hand" required. It's not surprising, in a way, but when I stop to think about it, it's another case where people are being replaced by robots. I'm concerned for the future of human work.

I'm concerned for the future of human work.

I'm not. Afterall, somebody has to build the robots. It just means those welders will need to move on to more gainful employment.

It will be painful in the short-term perhaps, but I liken it to the situation with farming. A couple hundred years ago people spent most of their time just trying to feed themselves, but then we slowly automated a lot of that and people moved on to more productive means of employment. The current situation will only be tough for the people not willing to embrace change.

> It just means those welders will need to move on to more gainful employment.

Easier said than done. Not everyone can be a programmer, and robots can easily build other robots. There will be some room left for human work, but there won't be enough to cover 300 million people. The social danger I see is an incredibly high portion of the work force out of work and out of money (with no government support structure), if people become desperate for their basic survival needs that they're used to now things can get very ugly.

And if we expand the term 'robot' to include simulated human minds, we get into a worse position with "normal human" jobs.

http://hanson.gmu.edu/IEEESpectrum-6-08.pdf

"Would robots be slaves? Laws could conceivably ban robots or only allow robots “born” with enough wealth to afford a life of leisure. But without global and draconian enforcement of such laws, the vast wealth that cheap robots offer would quickly induce a sprawling, unruly black market. Realistically, since modest enforcement could maintain only modest restrictions, huge numbers of cheap (and thus poor) robots would probably exist; only their legal status would be in question. Depending on local politics, cheap robots could be “undocumented” illegals, legal slaves of their creators or owners, “free” minds renting their bodies and services and subject to “eviction” for nonpayment, or free minds saddled with debts and subject to “repossession” for nonpayment. The following conclusions do not much depend on which of these cases is more common."

And of course, those robots will need to be repaired which means jobs for welders,electricians and machinists

I'm curious how much longer it takes to attach this device to the pipe instead of simply welding it by hand.

Also, what will happen when the automated welder starts having issues because some slag got into the gas head (where the inert argon is released) and the welding quality tanks? There needs to be a skilled laborer that knows how to fix it, and it will massively suck if your entire business which revolves around metal being welded together has to stop for 2 days until some specialized worker has to fly in to repair your device, all because no one you employ knows how to weld by hand.

Or it uses replaceable nozzles which also solves that problem. Anyway, welding robots have been in use for a long time so I expect the basic mechanics to have already been worked out.

PS: how much longer it takes might be less important than how much cheaper it is per weld. If I can pay someone 12$ an hour for 8 hours to do the same work that someone making 50$ an hour does in 4 it's normally a huge net win. On to of that, it will probably become faster fairly soon.

But there will be a human somwhere in the chain. Just as IT made business more efficient AND more expensive at the same time. There will be someone that has to maintain the robots, someone who can program the robot to do what it needs to do, etc.

Unless of course you think these robots will have AI. In that case, why would they build buildings for us, vs ruling over us?

I for one welcome our new robot overlords.

Am I on slashdot?

I really don't think machine intelligence is quite there yet (or will be for multiple decades). There is a lot of decision making and experience in those jobs. Robots are fine for the factory, but in the field they lack the flexibility of a human.

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