Comment by zaroth | Hacker News Reader

Comment by zaroth | Hacker News Reader

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You’re trying to value a company without looking at debt, so you’re missing the big picture.

Total Debt:

  VW.     $237B
  GM.     $192B
  Toyota. $190B
  Ford.   $155B
  Daimler.$108B
  Nissan. $42B
  BMW.    $80B
  Honda.  $42B

So your market cap analysis missed ~$1 trillion of enterprise value in your comparison set.

Simply put, the stock market cap is the total company value minus the debt.

Tesla debt by comparison is $14 billion.

All those companies together being worth only about 3x Tesla is perhaps surprising, but the market is weighting for the possibility that their entire current product lines will be virtually unsellable if not illegal to sell in a decade or so.

Tesla sells less than 1% of the vehicles that these companies sell combined. Are you seriously suggesting that Tesla production will increase by 100x within a decade? Even if we assume that 100% of the vehicles sold in a decade are electric (highly unlikely), the majority of the increase is likely to come from the other companies. They are not going to sit still and let Tesla devour them.

> Are you seriously suggesting that Tesla production will increase by 100x within a decade?

Tesla scaling electric vehicle and battery production by 60% CAGR for a decade doesn't seem too ridiculous when you put it that way. And that doesn't factor in new products. Look at Apple in 2007.

At what CAGR has their vehicle production scaled over the past 5 years?

  2014   16,689
  2015   25,416
  2016   47,644
  2017   50,140
  2018   191,627
  2019   192,250
  2020   500,000 est

Thank You. Are there any easy way to simply get this Data without manually looking up each Stock's balance sheet?

Basically that’s what I had to do, but on macrotrends.net

Thank You again for your time and input.

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