The last possibility seems particularly unnerving given how many people have had COVID and the fact that there do seem to be a good number of 'long-haulers' (some of whom report psychological effects).
I don't know if there's a good way of quantifying this, but the idea that every suicide during COVID is 100% casually connected to lockdown measures (or the knock-on consequences of lockdown, such as job losses) seems like an article of faith.