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Comment by HenryKissinger | Hacker News Reader

There are 3.5 million truck drivers in the US.

What are 3.5 million people going to do if they're suddenly out of a job and have to change career completely?

I am far from being a Trump supporter, but it would be easy for authoritarian politicians to ride to the White House on the grievances of millions of voters who had their livelihoods taken away from them by automation. Trump's promises to bring back manufacturing jobs were fueled by the automation and outsourcing that have already eliminated millions of positions. So Trump's victory in 2016 was already due in part to a backlash against automation.

No society where an average person - of average intelligence, average skills, average potential - cannot make a good living for themselves, can survive as a civilized society.

We can't all be developers, engineers, or doctors.

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The reason we don't live in sub third world conditions like our ancestors of the 1700s is that with the Industrial Revolution, a few % of jobs have been automated each year.

Through this history people have always been worried about those whose jobs are automated, but they've always, on average at least, managed to find new and better paying jobs.

It's important to understand that 3.5m jobs won't disappear in a month. It will take at least a decade to switch around an industry this big, and people will have time to adjust.

Also, this means transportation will be cheaper and faster (computers don't need sleep), which benefits everyone.

> No society where an average person - of average intelligence, average skills, average potential - cannot make a good living for themselves, can survive as a civilized society.

I'm actually also worried about this, but I think it's a separate issue.

If fully autonomous long haul trucking was buyable today, then it'd still take 10+ years for it to be phased in. And even then, your 3.5M people number likely includes both long haul and short haul trucking. Short haul is entirely different ballgame. So, a more likely scenario than 3.5M people losing their jobs suddenly is that the trucking industry stops hiring, and mix of short/long haul jobs shifts from its current mix to entirely short haul.

I'd also be interested in what the median age range is for truckers. If adoption is sufficiently long term (20 years wouldn't surprise me), the economic pain might be surprisingly minimal due to people aging out of the workforce.

What are 3.5 million people going to do if they're suddenly out of a job and have to change career completely?

There's a precedent for this. Back in the early part of the 20th century the number of people working in the horse trade fell dramatically as horses were replaced with automobiles. Society survived.

My grandfather grew up in an orphanage and was later sent to train to become a wheel maker, that is, someone who makes large wooden wheels with spokes for horse carriages. This must have been around 1925. Luckily for him, the skills he learned were quite easily transferred to general carpentry and cabinet making.

Sure, society survived, but the decades after the industrial revolution/jobs realignment were wracked by insurgency, terrorism, the rise of the communist, fascist and anarchist movements, and culminated in two ridiculously destructive wars and a catastrophic depression.

I'm not saying those things will happen now too (we would never see extremist violence in this day and age, would we?) but given that history tells us that when large numbers of young-middle aged men are underemployed, you get violence, crime, and deaths of despair, perhaps we would be wise to spend some time thinking through how to help those people reestablish their connections to society.

For that to happen, you actually need working autonomous trucks.

Sadly, press releases, PowerPoint decks, heavily edited videos on YouTube, and even artificial demos in tightly controlled environments are not enough.

> What are 3.5 million people going to do if they're suddenly out of a job and have to change career completely?

Retire, given the average age of a truck driver is between 45 and 55 depending on which article bemoaning a shortage of truck drivers you care to read. In practice, of course, 'under limited conditions, maybe' isn't going to automate away 3.5 million jobs, and we still hire people to drive trains despite full autonomy for trains being well-established reliable tech.

You're getting downvoted to oblivion, but it's an important question - though perhaps you could have at least explored some possible answers a bit in your comment.

Inequality in society, driven by poor early family life and environment for many (leading to many issues including poor education) is a real problem for 'the West', and especially the US.

I agree. Liberals and most people in the tech space believe Trump got elected due to racism. It just is not the case. He got elected by being an opportunist and latching on to the real biggest issue in America, the decades of downward pressure and degradation of lower and middle class families.

There just are not enough opportunities for average or poor people to find meaningful quality work. Going to work as a cog at some global chain store will keep you alive barely but good luck being able to buy a home or have children.

Housing is through the roof, the education system is a scam using undischargable debt to turn our youth into indentured servants. Almost every American is 1 health care crisis away from bankruptcy. We are living in a powder keg.

I am seeing a lot of evictions where I live. Food bank lines are miles long.

It feels like identity politics are being used to distract us from how dire things are becoming for literally everyone not in the 1%

This was pretty much Andrew Yang's campaign pitch, even specifically referencing the coming wave of unemployed truck drivers due to automation.

So people are thinking about it.

If we allow cars, all the jobs breeding and caring for the horses will disappear.

Let's just hope autonomous trucks displace the dangerous "king of the road" drivers with little regard to safety of those around them out of jobs first. Getting that type of trucker off the road can't come fast enough.

A common issue with automation, capitalism, etc. People may lose their job and will have to find something else to do, but if it's not a sudden transition, the amount of drivers will be reduced organically; it'd be a matter of less new vacancies opening up, and the career of driver becoming less attractive, so people will find something else.

It's a valid remark to make, since people lose their jobs to automation or outsourcing or whatnot all the time. But overall, global unemployment rates don't seem to be affected by new inventions, instead new jobs are invented all the time.

I mean a shit job that nobody should pursue as a career now is gig economy stuff; underpaid taxi driver / delivery person, there have to be millions doing these kinds of jobs now.

Anyway I do agree, not everyone can go for the high tech / high paid jobs. But the country can accommodate for it; give everyone equal opportunities by funding education (instead of relying on meritocratic scholarships and / or lifelong loans (the phrase indentured servitude comes to mind), do a state fund and set price limits on education). Make more jobs viable by raising the minimum wage, restricting the gig economy, setting work hours and day restrictions (e.g. 0 hour on-call contracts), basic worker protection laws and stuff. And finally, applying downward pressure on the cost of living so everyone can live comfortably regardless of job.

Everyone should be able to do a 40 hour work week if they choose to, no more than that unless they get paid 150%, and less if they choose to. And people working like that should be able to live in a reasonable distance from where they work.

The alternative is the "working poor", homelessness, working multiple jobs, working 80 hour weeks just to meet bare necessities, etc. This is already the reality for a lot of people.

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