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Comment by jacquesm | Hacker News Reader

> 60 years hence we’ll have settled Mars

Bullshit.

I think this is reasonable unless SpaceX runs into a wall at some point. Settle has a fairly wide range of interpretation, but yeah it may take longer than this before a "permanent" settlement can be established.

I find AGI in 60 years to be more controversial than Mars. Not enough evidence yet. One can def hope though.

Agreed, that too is a bullshit claim.

If I was alive in 1909 and someone made the claim that man would be walking on the moon in 60 years, I'd have called bullshit too.

But that's not the claim. The claim is that 60 years counting from the moonlanding we will have a settlement on Mars. I don't believe it for a moment. And even 60 years from today is a thing that I would not believe. We have a hard enough time keeping places much more hospitable to life on planet earth supplied.

Maybe, just maybe, we will have made a manned round trip to Mars. And that would be quite an accomplishment. A much more likely chance is a one way trip with all hands lost, assuming they make it to the destination at all.

> claim is that 60 years counting from the moonlanding

To be fair, “hence” means counting from now, not counting from the moon landing.

Ok, fine by me. Still bullshit.

On the other hand, it's been 51 years since Apollo 11, and not only we don't have any Moonbases (either now or in near future), we haven't even gone back there.

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