Also unknown is the number protected by prior infection. Anywhere from 10-30%.
I think we’ll see R’ start to plunge during summer due to weather and never climb back up from increase in immunity. But “back to normal”. January earliest.
I think we’ll see R’ start to plunge during summer due to weather and never climb back up from increase in immunity. But “back to normal”. January earliest.
There are also gradations of normal although once you fully open up restaurants, have indoor concerts, packed auditoriums, etc. most things you could do to reduce spread are pretty much theater at that point (other than possibly requiring vaccinations to fly, enter venues, workplaces).