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That estimation is hard does not make it impossible. That it may be inaccurate does not make it worthless. Special pleading that our industry is somehow the only one that faces uncertainty and novelty doesn't really hold water.

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> "Special pleading that our industry is somehow the only one that faces uncertainty and novelty doesn't really hold water."

I'm sure you're right. I don't think we should abandon all hope. I just think we should be more honest. I also think that software has fewer constraints than other industries, which is a blessing and a curse for estimation

Software is unique because it can be copy pasted. A builder that makes a house in 4 months the first time might estimate 3.5 months for a near identical house. But to deploy the same desktop app on two computers you merely reuse the installer from the first computer, and to recreate the same page in a different app you can copy the code, so no one ever estimates doing the same work twice. Every software problem has at least a little novelty, because if it isn't at least a little different, the work is already done.

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