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The issue is that if you ask different people in the country which party that "one" is - you'll get a fifty-fifty split.

It's more like a persistent 60/40 (or optimistically 70/30) split, but it's understandable that some people are simply wrong.

Exactly this.

That doesn't make them correct. Constantly averaging your position is a good way to get dragged in the direction of the outlier.

It doesn't make them correct but it means that we've got a pretty gigantic societal issue to deal with.