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Comment by Jkvngt | Hacker News Reader

F-150's are the classic work truck. Business is down across most sectors these days, work trucks aren't getting the wear and tear. And I'd wager that with so many people being either out of work or on reduced hours, driving in general is down.

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Upon inspecting the data, your theory doesn't hold up. Ford's problem isn't demand, it's supply. Light truck sales data (including F-150) show that sales are at an all-time high: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LTRUCKNSA

Vehicle-miles were down 10% for Nov 2020 (most recent month from FHWA) vs Nov 2019, that is true. https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring...

However, people are still buying new and used cars.

New car sales in Dec were strong: https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/usa-auto-industry-total-sales-...

Used car prices last year spiked astronomically: https://www.npr.org/2020/10/28/927971920/a-pandemic-sticker-...

Is work down? At least where I am, even during the strictest parts of lockdown construction never stopped. And so many people are starting renovation projects that's the price of things like lumber has gone up significantly.

Yes work is down. Total economic output is down. Many people are working from home, which means less driving. This isn't controversial.

How many people doing exclusively remote work would be driving an F-150 otherwise?

From where I’m sitting, west coast, construction and public works projects are up during the pandemic, not down.

While personal anecdotes are fun, the numbers tell a different story.

Show us those numbers. And be sure to make it numbers with a breakdown by industry because that was what was mentioned before.

I can say that where we are here, there was a stop on construction projects for some time but they were the first to be allowed back to work. So that's two anecdata (Canada here). And we've not had problems getting home based services taken care of even during the tightest lockdown restrictions. If the dish washer breaks down, you gotta get a new dish washer and your dish washer guy is likely to drive an F-150 (or a similar-ish type car).

I commented on a different branch of this thread with some numbers. Light truck sales in December 2020 exceeded light truck sales in any of the months prior to the pandemic.

Are you trying to gaslight me? What happened in the last year? What's the money supply look like?

I'm sure not much will come of my reply, but I will try once to make you think about it again and actually back up your claim. No gaslighting involved. You started the numbers talk by saying "While personal anecdotes are fun, the numbers tell a different story." The story itself talks about supply shortages of semi conductors, not of demand shortages because people aren't trying to buy F-150s.

So, do show us the numbers that you are talking about. I'm always for being educated and having numbers available.

Until then, I will go with the experience I have had and that of "asguy" and both of our experiences have been that F-150 driving work has not declined significantly from our point of view. In fact, I see two F-350s (!) right out my window across in the neighbor's driveway (both he and his son work in construction). And yes, they're busy.

People don't really buy these trucks for work. The vast majority are just inefficient daily drivers/status symbols. Your not going to throw 2x4s and scratch the paint of your $50,000 pickup truck.

I threw 2x4s into the back of mine not too long ago. My brother uses his to work on houses and maintain a golf course. His friend uses his truck to transport large equipment between several buildings he works in. That friend's parents use their pick up to pull their camper since they retired.

None of us would strike you as "workmen" upon first seeing us pull up, and none of us bought these vehicles as status symbols.

Big time stereotyping here. I got a lightly used 2016 F-150 about 2 years ago, and it's easily the best and most useful vehicle I've ever owned. I never have to worry about arranging or paying for delivery when buying/moving/hauling larger items like furniture, lumber, etc. I have moved twice with it by hooking up trailers too, and have helped out several friends as well. It's just so damn useful.

I work remote so I don't daily drive, and I certainly don't have it for any kind of status symbol, as I sold my sports car for it that was easily a higher status symbol than the truck is.

There is a reason the F-150 is the best selling vehicle in America, and the most sold truck on planet Earth. A good one.

As with all of this its anecdotes, but out of my 9 friends with trucks only one uses his regularly for hauling hay. That one is a beat up truck that is barely road legal. The rest are as immaculate as when they left the showroom floor. Something might go in the bed once in a while, but if it were a pure financial decision they'd be better off renting a uHaul for the few times that happens.

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