The issue with Tesla & Elon Musk is that he has a powerful reality distortion ability just like Steve Jobs did. He wills things to happen by force of personality and by believing it so, he convinces others to join him in making these things reality, which then becomes reality. He makes things become true by claiming them to be real before they are.

This is not normal and rare to be so talented in that aspect.

Hard to predict success/failure or bet against when you have someone like this.