Since that time I look for the people and community behind the project, and try to find signs of stability and long-term care. After that I look at open formats rather than open and flexible architecture-chains. For example, I'd rather use my LibreOffice HTML template and simple PHP controller on a more monolithic (but open) platform than connect a bunch of technologies together to create a build process with a bunch of moving, quickly developing, interdependent parts.
Not sure it's the best answer, but it has worked better to use more monolithic software, even blogging software that's been in steady, if slow development since the early 2000s...