Put you in the shoes of a grad student.
What would you choose (ethics aside) navigate to the website of your library do 20 clicks through a shitty interface to finally get a paper, and thats if you are lucky, or just paste a DOI and wait 5 seconds...
https://library.uic.edu/help/article/1966/what-is-a-doi-and-...
But then, Science magazine did a segment on this: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/04/whos-downloading-pir...
I suspect plotting sci-hub/non-sci-hub papers accessed per week for several weeks before and after the contract expiry would dispense with the need for any statistical analysis.
I recently introduced a part-time professor to sci-hub, when he was having trouble getting his vpn connection to work, so he could access a paper in a journal. Open access is just easier.
The racist, classist control of information has to stop. It should basically be a reverse paywall.