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This article may be worth a read for you: https://www.paychex.com/articles/human-resources/eeoc-workpl...

Below, I do some napkin math to attempt to estimate your likelihood of getting in trouble for firing somebody.

In 20 years, there were 1.8M employee discrimination cases filed in the US, so ~roughly 90K per year. Each year, about 19M employees are fired or laid off.

Considering that not all employee discrimination suits arise from termination, we can expect a rate to be significantly below the calculated likelihood of 0.04% (90K/19M), or less than 1 in 200. However, I don't have an estimate for this,

You can adjust that for the prevalence of underrepresented groups in your field, of course - usually it will be about half that have some protected factor (age, gender, ethnicity, disability, etc.), so let's double that, for 1 in 100.

Of those cases, 82% were closed without even a settlement. So we're back down to about 1 in 500, if you pretend that the EEOC chooses entirely randomly and cannot differentiate between real discrimination and made up ones.

I think it would be worthwhile for you to do some real risk assessment, and figure out whether the < 1/500 chance of paying some money, if you need to fire a person with a protected attribute, is worth being "terrified" about.

(Also, age discrimination constitutes the plurality of EEOC cases, so you should possibly be more concerned about hiring people over the age of 35 than hiring women or black people).

There's a difference between "this is evidence of discrimination" and "this is proof of discrimination". Getting fired without explanation is definitely evidence of discrimination: most employers are smart enough not to give a reason when firing someone for illegal reasons, so the majority of those firings are going to be "without giving a reason".

Conversely, if you do have a legitimate issue, it's (a) usually something you couch the employee on before firing them and (b) means you can give a vague reason like "performance" and thus avoid paying out unemployment.

The employee herself can also reasonably observe the social environment - it's not as common these days, but there's still plenty of places that have the Asshole Rockstar who is never going to get fired. It's a bit suspicious when places like that suddenly trot out "culture fit" for the first time, as an excuse to fire a woman.

(I'd also say that as long as you don't do anything stupid like TELL people you're discriminating, it's remarkably hard to prove discrimination - legally you're pretty safe there. The other reply does a good job breaking out the math)

I'm a random person on the internet and we're unlikely to cross paths, but I would _strongly_ recommend hiring a good HR advisor and people who can explain the problems in your comment. Admitting your mindset isn't productive is hard, but I'd recommend some introspection here.

> Yes, I'm a white male, but I'm considering hiring people for the first time and this sort of thing TERRIFIES me because I genuinely want to help out whoever I can

You're not "helping out" by hiring a women, or a person of color. This mindset has set you up for failure before even starting.

> What would I do if my nonwhite, nonmale (or both) hire just isn't working out (for valid reasons) but I can't yet afford to fight a discrimination lawsuit?

If there's a valid reason, then there won't be a discriminiation lawsuit.

> Eventually I realize I NEED more diversity

"Eventually" is too late. Hire a diverse team from day 1. This comment suggests that "diversity", however you define it, is sub-optimal and a burden to be carried.

> but now I've created the perfect conditions for discrimination lawsuits by having an all-white, all-male company

This is a problem of your own making by not making the effort to hire a more diverse team from day 1. The additional potential legal costs are a cost associated with this approach.

Edit: "hourglass-figure adorer" in your HN bio is a bit of a concern. Does this have a meaning I'm not aware of, or is part of your public, profesisonal persona the enjoyment of a particular female body shape?

> Admitting your mindset isn't productive is hard

Nah, I am good at admitting fault given sufficient reasoning or evidence, unlike most people. But if I think I have a point, I may double down on it. Observe:

> You're not "helping out" by hiring a women, or a person of color. This mindset has set you up for failure before even starting.

Yeah, maybe. I was trying to suggest that I... ok, fine.

> If there's a valid reason, then there won't be a discriminiation lawsuit.

In the OP's article, the discrimination was assumed to be the reason even if other more valid reasons might have existed. This is not evidential.

> Hire a diverse team from day 1

That's what I was suggesting.

> Does this have a meaning I'm not aware of, or is part of your public, profesisonal persona the enjoyment of a particular female body shape?

Let's just say I am 48 years old and used to subscribe to Heavy Metal (https://www.heavymetal.com/), which prominently features... well, you probably already know. Also that shaming me for my sexuality (without me harassing anyone, of course) is not only not a rational argument, it is discriminatory, and I refuse to apologize for how I am. It may also be convenient in this era of "cancellation for disagreement" (or as the woke leftwing sugarcoats it, "consequences") that I work for myself. >..< If I ever hire someone who has a problem with that, I'll ask them if they feel uncomfortable and work from there (note that women who express open interest in certain male body types do not faze me... but I don't want to create an uncomfortable work environment, so yeah, I'd probably have to remove that, sigh)

An impressively nuanced answer! Thank you.

And whilst I certainly do not wish to shame you. (Consenting adults can do as they please, enjoy what they please, etc.) as someone with responsibility for hiring and firing I'm glad you can see how it could lead someone to feel uncomfortable in a work environment.

In my experience the sort of people who would play the racism/sexism card if it wasn't the case also tend to be the people who loudly virtue signal and shame others on social media about those topics all the time, and even announce it in their profile/blurb next to their avatars. I think as long as you do a quick google search on someone and test their character in the interview, it shouldn't be as risky as you're worried about.

I don't think the hiring all white guys scenario as a workaround as you described is very realistic. If people are actually doing that, they're missing out on the full talent pool certainly.

If you consult an experienced HR specialist they will walk you through this difficult situation.