Y Combinator and Tesla were seen as stupid and crazy for a long time. Meanwhile I’ve seen a lot of domain expert entrepreneurs do really crazy things that lead nowhere when it’s VC money instead of theirs.
iPhone certainly not the first touch screen display, Microsoft did have one, I believe. However Apple's timing was perfect, there was increasing adaptation of wifi connectivity and 3g, making it able to browse anywhere. Of course smoother interface and beautiful design also contribute big.
AmongUs was lucky they got advertisement from streamer, at perfect timing that was (is) pandemic and lockdowns.
Tesla can be considered crazy because they try to emerge with unknown product, with unknown market and unknown possibility of success. If we look at the past, Apple's iPhone was crazy too, because it was new product, with unknown market.
So it was a no-brainer for those already carrying an iPod and a phone, even if it didn't do anything beyond being an iPod that could receive calls and texts!
Timing would be hard, but I could think of some general ideas (behavior changes when theres a pandemic, assuming certain trends will go forward, etc)