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Comment by gruez | Hacker News Reader

>Anybody living in the world can tell you that consumer prices are up a lot, lot more than 2.6%. Look even at this very thread. Food prices are way up, lumber prices are way up, restaurant prices are way up, clothing costs are up.

who knew that if you cherrypick from a list of items rather than using a broad basket, you can get arbitrarily higher/lower averages?

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Yes and no. If these (e.g., food) are the things most people consume most of the time that's not cherry picking. Furthermore, consumer perception does matter. It does have impact - even if it's misperception.

Gas is up. That's naturally going to increase cost of nearly everything that depends on that mode of transportation. Certainly, that's directly or indirectly just about everything.

All of that sounds like the availability heuristic in play. You buy groceries and fill up your car every week, but those two only make up 15.157% and 2.875% of the CPI respectively. If those went up 100% and everything stayed the same, you might conclude that inflation is 80-100%, even though the CPI would only be up 18%.

Oil is still under $70 a barrel though. It's gone up since being at some historical very low prices but compared to the times it's been north of $100, especially if you factor for 2021 dollars.

These are consumer prices though. Consumers don't buy barrels of crude oil. Meanwhile in the Bay Area, gas is $4.20/gal.

$4.20 would be nice. I just paid $4.87 this last weekend. :(

Gas in Boston is ~$2.97 a little north of where it was pre-covid.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/boston_retail_price_of_gasoli....

Something is going on with California prices to push it to $4.20+ a gallon.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/san_francisco_retail_price_of...

Gas taxes galore

Doesn't California also require custom blends for its gasoline, which also tends to make it more expensive? My understanding is that only refineries in California make them, which prevents out-of-state gasoline from being imported to help supply quickly match increases in demand.

https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-gasoline-manipulation...

What's less expensive right now than it was a year ago?

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm

Apparel, down -2.5%

Medical care commodities, down 2.4%

Motor vehicle insurance, down 2.5%

Airline fares, down 15.1%

I would reckon that airline fares are down because of the pandemic -- people don't want to fly because they are afraid of getting infected, and that's causing a "deflation" in ticket prices.

But by that measure, everything is up or down because of the pandemic. A lot of the inflation we are seeing is because of supply chain issues specifically caused by the pandemic. For example, lumber is only because they closed down mills, and chips are short because companies cancelled a ton of orders, etc. I myself went on a trip because plane tickets are so damn cheap right now.

But I do agree that we are in a period of very high inflation.

For anyone else out there thinking of traveling, the flights are cheap until you start having to do all the associated covid testing to even enter other countries. After that, it’s actually a very expensive time to fly. (Especially if the location only allows certain test facilities - $400+ per test adds up) Tests to get on the plane, tests after you land, tests some days after you land, tests before you leave... The flights are “cheaper” but the total cost definitely isn’t.

I went to Hawaii recently. We got first class tickets for around $600. A single test for $150 was required to go to Hawaii, but no test was required after that. And we didn't need to test before returning back to California.

The most expensive part actualy is car rentals. Car rentals in Maui are insanely expensive, if you can even get a rental. One of my friends was quoted $900/day. In other islands like Big Island and Oahu, they are cheaper ($50-80/day) if you can find a deal.

Comically, everything on this list can be attributed to people not leaving their houses as often as before the pandemic.

Why do we care if those things are cheaper if no one needs them?

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