Comment by m104 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by m104 | Hacker News Reader

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RIM is now a textbook case of Jerry Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy (http://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/iron.html) in action. Group one, the goal seekers, have been or are being forced out or converted to members of group two, the organization supporters. Those anonymous letters coming from the current and former employees? Just desperate attempts from group one employees to be heard over the crushing silence of the group two management structure.

Don't expect RIM's fortunes to turn around any time soon. Only a catastrophic business failure is going to shake up the management structure. With RIM's financials and market position, it could be years before that event comes to pass. Even then, there's no guarantee that RIM would really make a recovery. Most likely RIM will be absorbed by a larger competitor (and the current RIM top brass removed) before anything like real business failure can occur.

It's so painful to watch this. RIM has really made some great products and services.

"Most likely RIM will be absorbed by a larger competitor (and the current RIM top brass removed) before anything like real business failure can occur."

I think the most likely outcome is RIM stockholders will force some big changes after a few more quarters of getting drilled by Android and Apple's holiday lineup. Then 6-8 months later we'll see RIM starting to ship consumer Android devices with a Blackberry security/messaging ui layer alongside their other products. It will stabilize their fortunes and they could go on to be the leading Android vendor with their strong brand and messaging focus.

edit: you could even argue that they can't really do that now and couldn't do it last year. Everyone would say they're crazy to kill the golden egg and go make lower margin phones. They needed to have disaster quarters, failed products and tanking market share in order to make these decisions.

Let's hope that what you're describing will, in fact, unfold! A shareholder-induced leadership/direction change would be preferable to an embarrassing acquisition, especially given RIM's prestigious history.

For my money, I'll take the opposite side and say that RIM's too far gone down the entrenchment hole to recover with much dignity.

> Then 6-8 months later we'll see RIM starting to ship consumer Android devices with a Blackberry security/messaging ui layer alongside their other products. It will stabilize their fortunes and they could go on to be the leading Android vendor with their strong brand and messaging focus.

I have a feeling that even if they go down that route, they won't be the leading Android vendor.

If RIM is unable to innovate for a few more quarters, then their brand will be worth less. The longer they hold out, the less their brand is worth. If they switch to Android after their brand has taken hits, they will not do so well. Samsung and HTC are firmly entrenched in the Android market, and I doubt a weakened RIM would be able to overtake them.

Agreed, not just Samsung and HTC but also the likes of LG and Sony are better positioned to wind up as Android top dog.

Interesting scenario, but what happens to RIM's investment in QNX?

Abandoned like Nokia's investment in Meego?

Ribbon Farm makes me think there are actually 3 types of individuals. http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2009/10/07/the-gervais-principle-o...

Right, the Gervais Principle is based on what employees know, think and expect, whereas the Iron Law of Bureaucracy is based on how employees act. Just two different ways of looking at the same fundamental principle: entitlement, while desirable, ultimately destroys groups.

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