"Most likely RIM will be absorbed by a larger competitor (and the current RIM top brass removed) before anything like real business failure can occur."

I think the most likely outcome is RIM stockholders will force some big changes after a few more quarters of getting drilled by Android and Apple's holiday lineup. Then 6-8 months later we'll see RIM starting to ship consumer Android devices with a Blackberry security/messaging ui layer alongside their other products. It will stabilize their fortunes and they could go on to be the leading Android vendor with their strong brand and messaging focus.

edit: you could even argue that they can't really do that now and couldn't do it last year. Everyone would say they're crazy to kill the golden egg and go make lower margin phones. They needed to have disaster quarters, failed products and tanking market share in order to make these decisions.