Comment by abalone | Hacker News Reader

Comment by abalone | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

> Gone very light on crime - super light. At some point folks just get tired of dealing / seeing consequence free crime right in front of them. I think families with kids being impacted there particularly.

I challenge that statement. Do you have any data support it? It is a myth repeated over and over by certain people and it’s never supported by data.

Violent crime in SF is near all time lows. That’s just the facts.[1]

My neighborhood I’ve lived in for 15 years has gotten so much safer and we are raising kids and loving it.

The crazy thing is the conservative tech activists who moved to Miami.. moved to a city with higher crime! Miami is higher crime than SF. So is Dallas (that was another profile in the local paper).

It’s insane that no one is challenging them on the facts. I think this is all because a bunch of progressive supervisors got elected who are critical of certain elements of the tech industry, and the tech guys don’t have a good response and so they are doing the usual conservative tough-on-crime political ploy to try to get rid of them.

[1] https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-francisco/san-fran...

Sure - "'Out of control': Organized crime drives S.F. shoplifting, closing 17 Walgreens in five years"

https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Out-of-co...

If you haven't been seeing this you haven't been watching. It's absolutely brazen - daylight robbery literally - and turns the store workers and folks shopping into cynics.

Chelsea (new DA) took office end of 2019 or early 2020. That really marked a major change.

"A violent year: Bay Area killings spiked 35% in 2020"

https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/A-violent-year-Bay...

You probably don't realize how much crime is simply unreported - it's a massive amount. Go to any car glass shop - they will tell you how "crime free" SF is.

Note that I grew up in an actual low crime city. That means I never had a house key, we never locked the house. We left the keys in our cars. This isn't out in the middle of no where, this was a city (with very low crime).

You say your children can walk to neighbors freely like children can in east bay? You are the exception in SF.

I realized that folks in the city are just so used to crime, to the steps you have to take to avoid it, they don't realize the impact it has on their quality of life. You really don't get to know your neighbors that well (relative to a totally safe neighborhood where everyone is more welcoming). This last bit is anecdotal, but neighbors really look out for each other outside SF. Folks do the block email lists, get togethers.

I did a quick comparison to Lafayette in east bay.

San Francisco 2019 Murders (which was a low) - 4.5 murders per 100K. Lafayette - 0.0 per 100K. Robberies SF - 344 per 100K. Lafayette 11 per 100K. Lafayette had 3 robberies in the entire year. The differences are likely larger as in SF there are so many robberies per day that a fair number just don't get reported, especially in some parts of town where cops are not liked - folks are not calling it all in.

You’re comparing SF, a major city, to Lafayette, a suburb. That is objectively a ridiculous comparison. You will see similar disparities in most comparisons of that nature.

Your only SF specific crime stat is about property crime (shoplifting). Consistent with what I wrote.

Your second stat on murders is regional, not specific to SF, which overall remains near all time lows in violent crime. You then blame the regional Bay Area rise on SF’s district attorney which makes no sense.

This is all consistent with what I’m saying: the “safety” claims are not supported by data. Some folks in the tech community just keep saying it over and over within a specific sphere but I’m calling B.S. SF is safer than it’s been for most of our lives.

> You’re comparing SF, a major city, to Lafayette, a suburb. That is objectively a ridiculous comparison. You will see similar disparities in most comparisons of that nature.

Why? OP's numbers are per capita.

My family and I moved from SF to Lafayette precisely for these reasons: we were subject to assaults and intimidation from strangers in the street in SF (police refused to follow up), our car and garage were broken into once a year on average (police did not report back for any of the 7 police reports we filed), the total losses exceeded $5000. Others have it worse; our doctor had her house burned down by a mentally ill arsonist.

In addition, we were not looking forward to raising our kids in the SF public school system and we don't have enough money to pay for private school, so we moved out. In Lafayette, I can let my kids walk to school without worrying about them getting mugged. (By the way, aside from the neighborhood, you may experience public safety very differently depending on your height, weight, sex, and race. The stats won't tell you any of that, nor the amount of under-reporting going on due to the loss of public trust in the police/DA to do their job.)

We know many other families who followed similar trajectories.

Because the claim is that SF violent crime got worse, which is false. You are resorting to comparing the general disparity in crime rates between major cities and small towns, which is not unique to SF. Therefore it is an illogical argument.

I have no disagreement with you in your general point or personal preference for small exclusive bedroom communities where poor people cannot afford to live, but the same could be said in comparison for Miami, Austin, Dallas or any other major city.

The original claim was

> At some point folks just get tired of dealing / seeing consequence free crime right in front of them. I think families with kids being impacted there particularly.

Having lived in the area for 25 years, I think there is definitely more visible consequence-free crime. The stats do show it's a bit less likely that you'll get killed. And to your point, I'm sure Miami has its own problems. But I think SF has been going light on crime to the detriment of its quality of life.

And yet compared to New York, Chicago, or any other major city the stats are in the dumpster. [1] Or even San Jose. It is clear that even within the Bay Area SF is disproportionately bad and you have to wonder whose responsibility that is. City leadership - the DA and mayor included - have to have some responsibility?

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b... (sort by property crime)

> And yet compared to New York, Chicago…

Chicago has massively higher violent crime rate than SF. By your own citation.

> It is clear that even within the Bay Area SF is disproportionately bad

You claim with no data.

This is what I mean — the facts just don’t support the “SF has gotten less safe” argument.

Overall expectations around safety have increased dramatically. Some might say ridiculously? But it is what it is.

Many categories of death have had sustained reductions. Air travel fatalities in the US? Vehicle fatalities (excluding motorcycles etc)? So this is all great news.

However, recently some cities have just taken a crazy turn. Minneapolis? They are going to abolish their police department, but look at their numbers. Portland, Seattle etc. And yes, San Francisco in 2020 in terms of crime.

Is it reasonably possible that faced with closed schools, minimal social life, quality of life issues and yes - crime that while low is substantially higher than the suburbs folks might decide to move out of SF?

I did it, and I would recommend it. You can still visit, go to that favorite restaurant or park or etc. It's a fun date night "on the town". But when you get home, and smell the green in the air, and the neighbor waves at you , and your stuff is where you left it, and you kids can run and play without worry, and the schools are great without hedging (ie, 9's and 10's) and you child can go to the neighborhood school if they want - literally biking with you or walking, all those things add up.

Literally have all those things in the heart of SF. Some people just like living in more segregated communities.

> And yes, San Francisco in 2020 in terms of crime.

Again, no data cited! Even after being called out on it.

I literally just cited data upthread.

Robberies SF - 344 per 100K. Lafayette 11 per 100K.

You are 31!! times more likely to be robbed in a day in SF than in Lafayette. This assumes reporting is equal - in general studies show once crime is up reporting goes WAY down.

The difference in crime rates between urban and suburban is relatively well known. I also linked to articles discussing increase in murder in SF.

Is there something more you want?

Is the question about year over year crime in SF itself?

Property crime contributes substantially to a feeling of unsafety. You can't just ignore it because you didn't get mugged. If your car window gets smashed you're going to feel unsafe too, you know. And you encounter it much more often than violent crime, so it has a larger effect on your feeling of safety of your surroundings.

The data in my link shows SF has disproportionately bad property crime per capita compared to every other wealthy city: NYC, Chicago, San Jose, LA, etc.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com