It's a little disheartening to read most of the comments in this thread. They sound a lot like the complaints about the lack of the tank stations during the transition from horse power to ICE.
How so? With ICE engines you just bring an extra tank of fuel if you’re going somewhere without fuel stations.
The rule of thumb is: if you can run an electric kettle, you can charge an EV.
If there really are people who are actually driving to places with no electricity that are over 200km from a charger, then they can stick to ICEs for a while.
If that's not enough and stopping for a 15 minute charge every 290 miles is not an option, then you really need an ICE :)
The first automobile with a wider impact was Ford Model T, 1908, 20 years later.
And car ownership only took over after WW2, some 60 years after Benz.
With EVs I guess Prius was the Benz moment and Tesla was Model T. Even with today's accelerated rate of tech progress, I'd be surprised if EV are 50-50 with ICEs faster than 2035.
EVs don't need to reinvent the car-primary road, nor do they need to reinvent fast food and road tourism. A lot of comments here and elsewhere get bogged down in problems of reinventing the gas station but get stuck on trees and miss the forest that we don't need to reinvent the business model (gas stations made their highest margins by partnering with convenience stores and fast food operators and encouraging longer, healthier breaks), nor do we need to reinvent the electric grid (maybe we'll need investments into it, but not substantial reinvention), nor do we need to match the volume of existing gas stations because home charging shifts the economic equation drastically.
We don't need another WW2-level event "in forty years" to rapidly shift to EV. We may only need to see the right "snowball" conditions, and I feel like they are more likely than not, and possibly are going to be surprisingly faster than a lot of people expect.
If only EVs are sold by 2030 (as current manufacturers mostly expect) there will be a drastic shift in vehicle supply. That may potentially snowball into larger supply issues with the overall ICE supply chain. As suppliers leave ICE part niches, that will open holes in repair and maintenance supplies, increasing ICE vehicle maintenance costs [ETA: which will have snowball effects on the prices of used ICE vehicles].
I also think that even brief hiccups in gasoline demand will see prices spike, in turn causing more hiccups and shifts in demand. As patterns of demand changes shift, low margin gas stations will get out of the game entirely. Higher margin stations become more likely to hedge their bets with fewer pumps and more electric chargers (and continued/increased reliance on convenience storefronts, grocery stores, and fast food margins). Range anxiety for ICE vehicles will return with a vengeance. I think/hope it will happen a lot faster than people expect given the inherent complexities of gasoline supply chains and how much of "last mile" of gasoline pumps and stations are already operating on drastic, razor thin margins (and have been for decades).
(Also, the EV1 in 1996 might more accurately be the "Benz moment" than the Prius.)
A. Estimates are almost always too optimistic.
B. Most cars sold in the world are not luxury cars.
I think EVs will snowball, especially with features that ICEs can't match such as:
1. frunks
2. flat floors and more interior space overall
3. wheels that can be placed closer to the corners of the car (better maneuverability, so easier turning, easier parking, better stability, etc)
4. reverse charging that can even be used to power up entire homes, etc.
Unfortunately inertia is a powerful force, that's why I think critical mass will happen around 2030 and 2035 would be where I see sales of ICEs and EVs becoming equal. And then we need to replace the cars in use, keeping in mind that it takes 10+ years on average for cars to be retired. More like 20+ years in developing countries.
I don't that's the case any longer. The article here ends with something of a summary, but at this point all of the German manufacturers are saying that they are going all in on electric (across every brand/model) by the end of this decade. Swiss manufacturer Volvo says they are expecting nearly the same. The Korean conglomerate (Kia, Hyundai) has been saying something similar (albeit they still seem to be hedging with hydrogen fuel cells a bit). Japanese manufacturer Nissan has been preparing for the switchover more than most and also expect to be all electric by the end of the decade. (Except for Nissan of America which has gone so crazy the board threatened to rebrand them back to Datsun in order to jettison them.) Honda has said they expect nearly as tight a shift over. (Though Honda of America isn't paying attention either.) GM is hedging its bets but still expects to be 75% electric by the end of the decade. (GM has always made a point since the original Volt of focusing its electric efforts in the non-luxury Chevrolet brand first.) That's all just off the top of my head, and covers a huge gamut of non-luxury brands.
Edit: I guess my unstated point is that we should be looking to improve the user journey, not necessarily match the existing technology. For example, I take public transport because I can read or even sleep, and not because it’s faster or cheaper than taking my own car.
[0] https://www.ted.com/talks/rory_sutherland_life_lessons_from_...
Tesla is the only one that has it in all cars, because they use their fleet to train their neural networks.
Infrastructure problems aren't unsolvable because of lack of technical ways to accomplish, its usually other issues not related to the solutions.
Mostly issues about EV charging aren't technical, but political.