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Unfortunately, we have reason to believe that over time, the immune defenses from COVID-19 infection seem to decline, particularly in older folks. It'd be great if we had some definitive data on secondary infection rates, but until a lot more people get infected, we just won't have it.

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What is the evidence that “we have reason to believe that over time, immune defenses from COVID-19 infection seems to decline”?

I think this is another case where improved surveillance is turning up things that, while they look bad, happen with other vaccines and never turn out to be a problem.

The same goes for variants, which a lot of people expect to break through vaccines because that's how the flu works, but it doesn't actually seem like they will.

Yes, the extreme focus of attention is turning routine and expected medical observations into scary anecdotal news cycles.

I keep hearing this, but have yet to see evidence that the elderly are catching second rounds at a high rate.

Because there isn’t any. But that is how the aging immune system responds to most other diseases, so we assume the same will be true here.

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