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Picking a random listing for forest land in upstate New York (no land), maybe $1K-$5K per acre. (Of course, even at the time, Manhattan was known to be on the ocean with a good harbor so not really a fair comparison.)

I think that's exactly the point OP was making. They are saying that even in a situation like Manhattan where nobody had any idea that the land would one day be worth a fortune, the average annual percentage increase in land value has not actually been that high. Certainly if you picked some random plot of land that's not part of a huge city, the numbers would be even smaller.

Yes, it makes about as much sense to talk about the ROI of a soon-to-be-winning lottery ticket before and after the winning numbers are announced while ignoring the losing tickets.