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Even if we shut down all medical facilities, 20% of the population dying is outlandish.

Myanmar's circumstances excluded.

20% might be high but in the absence of oxygen support most people over 65..70 will expire if they stay sick longer than a week with this damned virus.

I don't know the how big the senior population of Myanmar is but 10% is not unreasonable.

According to a 2020 report, [0] the hospitalisation rate for over-80s is around 20%. The hospitalisation rate for over-65s will be far lower.

[0] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196573/covid-19-one-five-ove...

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