Amazing how determined kids can be at trying to get off school!
The downside to this is that it deprives their classmates as entire bubbles get sent home I think.
The downside to this is that it deprives their classmates as entire bubbles get sent home I think.
Assume probability of false positive is 1%. If you are tested weekly, there is a 41% chance you'll falsely test positive at least once in a year. If you are tested every workday, 93% chance. This is assuming there is no malfeasance.
If you assume a false positive probability of 5%, the probabilities go up to 93% and 100%.
The negative effects of false positives are the same whether kids are using soda or something else is causing them. At some point, the costs have to be weighed against the benefits.
Here is a false positive/false negative simulator I put together last year (thrice silently banned -- so I stopped trying to do more after restoring it one last time) helps you explore what happens with various scenarios of infection rates and false positive/negative probabilities.
Linking to the discussion to provide context for the app:
https://www.covid2020.icu/false-positive-false-negative-simu...
Even when the rate of Covid infections in the UK was much lower than it currently is, retesting of people using PCR suggested that the large majority of positives were in fact true positives, at least amongst the adults retested. It's possible that the story is different for kids, but on the other hand they're not vaccinated in the UK whereas many adults are...
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n706
both make interesting reading.
The tests seem to have a high false-negative rate. Assuming independence and 25% FN rate, a second test will miss an additional 20% of infections of all people tested.
I think that the antibody tests are sketchy in the first place, but if they don't even stick to the protocol and don't follow up positive antibody tests with PCR tests, it's almost pointless.
If anything, we need more testing, not less, to contain earlier.
Yes globally school systems need a massive rehaul, anybody can name easily 10 things that would improve schools for everyone, probably any school. No we shouldn't give up just because its hard and we already went through it.
Its one of the fuckin' most important things for human civilization, if not the #1 item long term. We don't need to strive for perfection, practically all major improvements would be worth it.
[1] - https://astranova.org/apply
[2] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFOEyqqGuEI [video]
[3] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io3TiuJsfLc [video]
[4] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO22X2AV2xg [video]
Yes, it has some advantages, but most of them come from the admission process and high budget. The main problem I see is that you are in a bubble, not like the other kids. It makes it difficult to reintegrate the regular school system if you ever need to. Obviously not a problem for Elon Musk kids, but it may be for middle class children.
> One study conducted by California State University at Sacramento researchers outlined numerous theories and ideas prevalent throughout Waldorf curricula that were patently pseudoscientific and steeped in magical thinking.
Well, so much for that idea.
Your options are to "literally LOL" and consider making progress to be a "fool's errand," or you can recognize that eliminating these problems may be impossible but making significant progress is not.
Making a school nicer won't cut it. Reforming how kids learn may do that.
It would have been the job of governments to actually govern, by transforming schools to work digitally. Just look at Denmark - their schools have been digitalized for over two decades (https://www.aktiv-online.de/news/digitale-schule-in-daenemar...). All they had to do was tell the kids to stay home and that's it. No deprivation, no negative effects.
The complete inaction (how many schools have bought and installed air purifiers vs. how many parliaments?) and incompetence that has been shown towards children all over the Western world in the coronavirus crisis is utterly utterly inexcusable.
I think that kids are absolutely deprived of beneficial social interactions when they are sent to be schooled at home versus in-person. Schooling is not solely about academic achievement. Source: I have a 10 and 12 year old who lived this on and off for the last 16 months.
Thought about another way: if there truly was no negative effect, why isn't the education being done 100% remotely in normal conditions? Why have such expensive buildings and transportation needs if there's no benefit?
Because modern capitalism demands that children be kept at school for most of the day - in Germany we call the trend "Ganztagsschule"/"whole day school" - so that both parents can be exploited.
Decades ago, school days were far shorter and there were no such things as school lunches simply because 99% of children had a parent at home able to feed them. When children were sick, they were kept at home instead of spreading their germs at school.
We need to get working hours and wages under control. 20 hours of work a week should be more than enough, given the massive automation gains over the last decades.
https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-si...
Selfexploitation is a thing, yes. But that should not be a reason to immediately give uo hope of ever improving anything.
First, I would consider mandatory education a socialist policy, not a capitalist one. It's completely against the concept of a free market.
I would say it's the result of politics, namely a good part of 2nd wave feminism (but not all) and the destruction of family as an institution. Broken families dependant on welfare are golden for any centralised power who needs votes every 5 years.
Don't get me wrong, I'm sure big businesses (who are in bed with the government) benefited plenty from having twice the workforce. More competition in the workplace, lower wages. AND you sound progressive, because you're giving women the privilege of being able to work like your husband.
But there is nothing capitalistic about big businesses profiting from centralised political propaganda. That's the opposite of capitalism.
Automation won't be enough to reduce the number of hours, you need to change people's minds: we don't need a technical solution to work less, we need a social, political one.
EDIT: I didn't realise you support Antifa in your bio (I really don't, couldn't be further away from supporting political violence), which is surprising given we actually agree on the premise, which is that people are working too much and we left government puppets growing our children instead of doing it ourselves.
The worse thing is: every person contracting the virus can develop a mutation that escapes vaccines - and children can spread it to their parents and grandparents.
You never had children I assume? Just look at your coworkers how often they fall sick because of some nasty flu or other bug their children caught in kindergarten or school.
And your "Wuhan coronavirus" naming ... the only people I've heard who call the virus by that name or its similar "China virus" are right-wingers and corona / vaccine deniers.
The next paragraph in your link gives 14.5%:
The UK Office for National Statistics's latest report
estimates that 12.9 per cent of UK children aged 2 to 11,
and 14.5 per cent of children aged 12 to 16, still have
symptoms five weeks after their first infection. Almost
500,000 UK children have tested positive for covid-19
since March 2020.
Most medical bodies say it normally takes a few days or
weeks to recover from covid-19, and that most will make a
full recovery within 12 weeks.I don't doubt that there's some likely some fairly common short-medium term health impacts from a nasty flu that's relatively new and unknown. But I strongly wonder how much of these supposed "long-covid" symptoms may be wounds that are partially self-inflicted by society. I believe that natural (and already quite bad) activity patterns have been altered negatively since Covid started and this may have a wide-scale health impact that the establishment doesn't care about. These symptoms may partially stem from basically keeping people locked up inside for months, the media feeding them constant scare stories and stressing them out (stress can prevent good sleep and has many other negative health effects), people eating garbage food because there's not as much else to do, people not getting as much sun (Vitamin D exposure) and exercise as they should be getting, the depressions coming from the unnatural social life we've been forced to endure (covering faces, only communicating via video chats), etc.
> And your "Wuhan coronavirus" naming ... the only people I've heard who call the virus by that name or its similar "China virus" are right-wingers and corona / vaccine deniers.
May I ask what does an idealogical compliance check add to the conversation?
Activity patterns will no doubt have had some negative impact, but they are not even close to accounting for long-covid symptoms. A change in activity doesn't account for a sudden inability to breathe properly, fatigue so severe that walking is difficult, inflamed hearts, or many of the myriad of other symptoms that long-covid sufferers have reported.
Better political action - e.g. following basic science by mandating and enforcing masks, enforcing actual lockdowns, making tests and sick days accessible, supporting poor people who don't have a realistic choice between working sick and not having something to eat, and now that there's vaccines available making them mandatory - would have saved a lot of these wounds!
The differences in coronavirus-caused interruptions between countries with solid leadership and a societal sense of solidarity (e.g. New Zealand, but also many Asian countries for the better part of the last year) and right-wing populist-led or -influenced countries such as the US, Brazil or most of Europe can't be denied any more.
We all need to hold our politicians accountable for their mismanagement and recklessness if we want a chance at restoring our societies and healing the rift.
> May I ask what does an idealogical compliance check add to the conversation?
Simple: I don't want to engage with right wing people and conspiracy myth spreaders in the meatspace and I want to do the same online.
I’m really glad that you’re not in charge.
I don't know if you read or understood my comment, but the self-inflicted wounds I describe such as stress, lack of exercise, bad diets, and other problems associated with "long-covid" may be at least partially due to lockdowns. If this is the case, your prescribed solution may exacerbate the problems. A controlled study on this would be interesting.
> The differences in coronavirus-caused interruptions between countries with solid leadership and a societal sense of solidarity (e.g. New Zealand, but also many Asian countries for the better part of the last year) and right-wing populist-led or -influenced countries such as the US, Brazil or most of Europe can't be denied any more.
Without getting into a full-on political debate about the merits of freedom and a good economy's role in preserving vulnerable peoples' lives, I'd like to point out that Covid's effects in different countries may have more than 1 variable that no leader could have solved.
For instance:
* As a relatively isolated island nation, New Zealand had the luxury to lockdown in a way that relatively few nations have.
* Compared to most of the world and especially Asia, Americans are heavier, which seems likely to negatively impact outcomes from this illness.
* America has large populations of people who suffer from Vitamin D deficiency that seems linked to Covid problems that other countries do not have.
> Simple: I don't want to engage with right wing people and conspiracy myth spreaders in the meatspace and I want to do the same online.
Fair enough. Personally, I believe in diversity and diverse ideas and would be interested in engaging with the left, right, middle, libertarian, communist, you name it. Even authoritarians too.