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Comment by brianwawok | Hacker News Reader

They are supply constrained until the Texas factory opens. Literally a 3-6 month wait if you go order one today. With Texas open they are on track to double sales if demand stays strong.

Cybertruck comes next after Texas is pumping out 500k units a year, and they have the next battery pack ready to scale. My guess is summer-fall 2022 by the slow news on the topic.

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How many factories do they have and how many do they plan to open?

Texas, Berlin, something in China?

Also, do we have a time frame for all of them? I'm trying to figure out how many vehicles they'd expect to sell per year in 5-10 years.

Plus, the really interesting challenge, I wonder if they can do it: could they make a cheap compact car for ~20-25k?

Elon already promised a ~$25k "Model 2" car within 3 years about a year ago, and the icon at Battery Day made it look like a compact car.

Though with Elon-time maybe tack on another year.

The fact that cheap sedans have such a low profit share in the industry, and already get great mileage, probably means that will be one of the last ICE segments to get eroded.

Right now they have Fremont operating at capacity, and Shanghai still ramping. Austin and Berlin are under construction and the hope is they get the first vehicles out this year. All told, total capacity under construction represents something like a tripling of current production bandwidth.

Elon mentioned that they are targeting 20 million vehicles (per year) by 2030. See the Battery Day presentation for more context.

I hope they are close to deciding where the next few factories will go. They probably need to start building those as soon as Texas and Berlin begin production.

For US at least, the Texas site is real big. Like I think they could double capacity a few times. So may be a matter of scaling it up for a bit before needing to add another brand new factory.

I recently drove past the Austin construction site. It's so incredibly huge. And they keep buying the surrounding land. It's really impressive to see in person.

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