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klintcho

I loved this tweet by Ross Gerber

"So that makes tesla worth $8 tril by these metrics."

https://twitter.com/GerberKawasaki/status/143129811631815884...

Some valuations are truly difficult to grasp.

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Nearly all valuations are difficult to grasp at this point. We're _way_ overdue for a _massive_ correction. Surprised Pikachu faces incoming.

Are we? I mean, where else are excess savings going to go? It's clear that every time stocks start to seriously pull back that the Fed just pumps out more money. At some point it seems like yes, stocks are overvalued, but I'd rather put money into something with productive capacity, as opposed to something like cash which more and more seems like it will just lose value faster.

"Excess savings" are going to panic and go to "the mattress" at some point, when it becomes clear "excess savings" are invested into a de-facto Ponzi scheme which has no bearing on the real world at all. See e.g. 2008 or 2001 before that.

I mean, that's my exact point. If there is anything 2001 or 2008 taught the world, it's that the Fed will run the printing press full bore if there is a big downturn, so putting cash in your mattress is the absolute worst place for it to be.

It already did run it full bore for the past year and a half - US public is just not paying attention. At some point running it full bore will turn the US into Zimbabwe, currency-value wise. That will not reflect positively on the economy as a whole.

They have been buying up corporate bonds, which is not the same as printing money and spending it. They simply have to slow down and eventually stop buying bonds and as they are paid back, that money goes back of the ledger. I.e. it's destroyed.

As I said above, a lot of surprised Pikachu faces incoming.

Ok, so you claim rockets in space and change of whole industry to electric cars doesn't have impact on the world for example?

Powell won't reduce the Fed's balance sheet until every last person in PE is a billionaire (on paper).

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

I fear it's going to be like 90's Russian hyperinflation (ending with default). Ain't gonna be pretty if that happens, for anyone in the US or abroad. There's also nothing the Fed can do about it once it starts in earnest.

Make money and take profits while you can?

The best way to make money now is by borrowing a ton of money long term and investing it into property. Doesn't even matter what kind. Source: every single Russian oligarch, who borrowed eye watering amounts of money just before hyperinflation hit, and returned kopecks on the ruble.

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