They won't be mainframes, because as the author does correctly point out, mainframes are unmatched at large-scale, high throughput, resilient, stateful, transaction-heavy workloads. While that is part of what the major cloud providers support, it is not everything. Because it is not everything, the systems the major cloud providers design and build will look different from mainframes, but I think they will have key similarities: virtualization and security features provided by the hardware; high reliability through redundancy and in-hardware error-checking; easy physical maintenance through hot-swappable components.