It's hard to say that MS was hurt by the DOJ given their current market cap.

Also, the US federal government is a shambles. They can't put together an inquiry on what lead to the seat of government being literally overrun, so I'd be incredibly surprised if they managed to take action against one of the most well funded entities on earth.

You forget DOJ and the entire executive branch it reports to are pretty much bought by lobbyists, many of whom directly or indirectly work for FB and other big tech.

I think point I think the insiders 90% "know" whether DOJ action is going to come down or not and have already built that into the stock price.

They will just pay a small fine and call it a day.