Have we not printed 1-3 trillion dollars in the last two years? Like, a substantial proportion of all circulating dollars? How does that not immediately devalue the dollar?
But, the birds eye view formula from my macro classes is MV = PY, where M is the money supply, v the velocity of money, P prices, Y real GDP.
GDP is usually going up, we have more people (and we hope they are each more productive). So that means that either the money supply or velocity must go up, or prices go down (deflation). Velocity is fickle and probably interrelated with consumer expectations around P (if you think things are going deflate for one thing, you might wait longer to make a purchase hoping to pay less in nominal terms, and this has the effect of shrinking MV even more relative to PY).
Since V is hard to control directly, in practice M has to increase regularly to prevent deflation. What we saw with the pandemic was large decreases in V and unexpectedly small decreases in Y. The fed increased M and it absorbed this differential. My understanding though is that the inflation doomers think the drop in V was transitory and now we'll see a sudden spike in all that money being unlocked and circulating
Through the velocity lense, the fact that QE and stimulus checks have very different inflation effects also becomes apparent- if you give a check to someone living paycheck to paycheck, they will spend it in their local community nearly immediately and it will be passed around quite a bit before getting locked into an asset price somewhere. If you edit the banks accounts at the fed or have the fed buy assets though, it seems to go quickly into asset prices where it sits for years before leaking into the economy as a whole, with a much much lower velocity. So $1 there != $1 here in terms of increasing prices.
Secondly, printing those dollars does immediately devalue the dollar, just not to the degree you might expect.
The average American has no savings, they will not immediately renegotiate their wages upon the news that this money has been created. Therefore, their opinion about the value of the dollar has little impact. They have no dollars to sell for other things, they spend just as they used to, demand stays the same, prices are stable if not for supply issues. Stimulus checks are an exception to this, but we did see price increases in anticipation of that spending.
Those who manage wealth on the other hand already know that dollars are trash, now they are just a little bit trashier. They do not hold large dollar positions in the first place, instead they buy up all sorts of assets - stocks, bonds and real estate. This inflates prices and depresses interest rates, increasing paper wealth and encouraging cheap borrowing - exactly what the government wants.
In other words, massive inflation has existed for years, it just does not affect every part of your life equally. If you are in the market for a house, your purchasing power as a worker has been completely annihilated. If you are in the market for a hamburger, you are fine.
Past spending isn’t relevant to the claim I was responding to.