Russia is massing troops on Ukraine’s. Most likely another war will happen there shortly.
China is becoming hyper aggressive towards Taiwan.
Serious war is around the corner. Not hypothetical wars.
China is becoming hyper aggressive towards Taiwan.
Serious war is around the corner. Not hypothetical wars.
Russia has had troops around Ukraine for the last 7 years. The Donetsk and Lugansk "republics" exist since 2014. Russia is waiting for Ukraine's move since then.
As long as USA has bases in Japan and has military presence in Taiwan... China won't make a move. It's easier to wait for USA to leave though.
We'll see continuous provocation between the blocks (most recently, Afghanistan Taliban Regime, Belorussian usage of immigrants against the EU, etc). But a serious war around the corner sounds a bit too far from reality.
China is doing the same now with Taiwan. Try calling Taiwan a country as a movie star -> forced apology. Bodies like the IOC already falted. No guarantee that sometime someone tries, or feels forced to try for whatever reason, to push it. If the West doesn't react to that, well, then all the others will push the limits as well.
USA has lost its image of "being the police of the world" and the countries that depend on that image are suffering. Their future looks quite grim. Besides that, Taiwan isn't recognized by the UN since 1971 and by the IOC since 1981. The west didn't react back then either.
Cuban mistake crisis happened because Kennedy was perceived as weak willed. The generals behind him were not and pushed him hard toward stronger response. Was close to an American revolt.
Serious war may look different from the past of nation-state wars. We're living through the emergence of network states. Given how the Internet enables non-tangible property (I.e., domain names that one can use to build businesses, associations, non-profits; bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto-projects) through communications protocols and cryptographic mathematics, its no longer necessary to wage physical war to gain an advantage. Thus we see a massive rise in persistent threat actors, which could be world war three already happening, but we don't recognize it yet because we're used to observing nation-state wars, not network state wars. Perhaps the modern age of nation state dominance ran from the Peace of Westphalia to 1989, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the design of the World-Wide-Web by Berners-Lee.
So, you're not wrong, but also omitting a significant actual current threat.
For example your narrative is failing to account for the horror of mutually assured destruction which is a strong psychological factor in wars between major powers.
Maybe a couple of islands and a bit of India. Then a break for a few years. Repeat now and then.