While they are the most population-dense areas and are growing faster than other places in the world, I'm pretty sure it's more likely that the 7 billionth person won't be born in India or China.
It takes all of 2 mins to calculate. All facts from here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_de...
Birth rate world-wide: 20.3/1000. Population: 7 billion :-)
Total # births: ~ 142 million.
Birth rate India: 23/1000. Population: 1.2 billion.
Total # births: 27.6 million.
Birth rate China: 13/1000. (That should surprise people). Population: 1.34 billion.
Total # births: 17.4 billion.
Therefore the odds of it being India or China is ~ (17.4+27.6)/142 ~ 31%.
Fact: Considering that No country has a birth rate larger than 3x India and only China has a population larger than India, India has the maximum # births/year in the world.
"pretty sure it's more likely that the 7 billionth person won't be born in India or China."
31% it will be in India or China, 69% it won't be in India or China.
If none, then it could be said that China or India are more likely than any other particular country.
Is the birth rate of China and India combined more than that of the rest of the world? If so, then it's more likely that it will occur there than anywhere else.
So your point that those two have the highest birth rate isn't responsive to tghw's point that those two alone don't represent the majority of new births. So if we had to bet on "one country", a person would pick one of those two. But when we're betting "India/China or somewhere else?" the smart money is on "somewhere else".
I'm asking two questions. The second, quoted here, is saying the same thing as the OP.
No, partially due to the one-child policy.