I've come to a similar conclusion: the people who are vaccine "hesitant" are mostly those who are either a) not smart or b) narcissistic (or both). That's because those who are not smart don't trust studies or generally don't trust authority (as in people who are experts). They trust their gut feeling and trust arguments more that fit in their world view. This goes so far that they trust messages that don't fit together (e.g. "china unleashed it to kill us" vs. "it's just like the flu, no biggy"), for as long as it helps them in justifying and maintaining their behavior.

This leads to my conclusion that most of these people are beyond convincing because a) logic doesn't work and b) empathy doesn't either (at least for the narcissists). What works for some is if they see direct effects in their closest circle, e.g. family dying. However, for many even this is not enough because of so much propaganda and peer pressure. However, I personally have come to the conclusion that a state's responsibility is to protect these people (and everyone else) from themselves and thus a vaccine mandate is appropriate. Obviously, this is a difficult step everywhere but especially so in the US (because of the polarization). Which is why I am happy to live in western Europe.