Are you aware of the work by Meehl on actuarial vs. clinical judgment? One of the conclusions of that line of work is that fairly dumb, mechanical data-driven rules ("actuarial judgment") consistently outperform expert opinion ("clinical judgment") even on what we think of as fairly complex topics.

The more surprising conclusion is that the dumb, data-driven rules outperform experts even when the experts get access to the same data and the decision made by the data-driven rule. Why? Humans have a tendency to think they're better than dumb rules and override these dumb rules in ways that make their decision ultimately worse.